4 Ways September's Inflation Report Could Sway Midterm Election Outcomes
September's inflation report could have political consequences as voters prepare for next month’s midterms.
The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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“People use national economic news as a shortcut for judging the country’s direction and policymakers’ performance,” said Dr. Najiba Benabess, an economist and dean of Neumann University's School of Business.
That could have implications for November's midterm elections in several ways. Keep reading to see how September's report could influence the election.
Make Affordability a Voting Issue
Affordability has been one of the top voting issues this year.
A Pew Research Center survey found that 84% of registered voters consider the economy very important to their congressional vote. That includes 88% of Democratic candidate supporters and 82% of Republican candidate supporters.
The survey was conducted September 28 through October 4, before the CPI report's release.
“Kitchen table issues (particularly high inflation, cost of living, and gas or grocery prices) drive voting in midterm elections,” said Robert Johnson, professor at Creighton University's Heider College of Business.
The latest inflation figures could reinforce affordability as a deciding factor when voters weigh candidates' economic records and proposals.
Fuel Voter Anger
September's CPI report puts numbers behind the rising costs Americans have been experiencing, potentially deepening dissatisfaction with the economy.
Gasoline prices jumped 34.2% year over year, while food prices rose 2.5% and shelter costs increased 3.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The visibility of gasoline has a disproportionate impact,” said Wayne Winegarden, an economist at Pacific Research Institute. “It is a weekly reminder that things are not going in the right direction and the repetition and visibility matters.”
Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at Tufts University's Fletcher School, explained why that frustration can persist.
“It’s probably wrong to think that people follow month-to-month changes closely,” he said. “It is likely that they compare costs and prices to what they consider a ‘normal’ level which would be some average over a longer horizon.
Such dissatisfaction could become politically consequential if voters express their anger through their participation and choices in November.
Affect Voter Turnout
Economic dissatisfaction could also influence who shows up to vote.
Rick Miller's research at Big Chalk identifies a group called “Trade-Off Consumers,” households making trade-down decisions (choosing cheaper alternatives) in major consumer spending categories like housing, clothing, and groceries.
According to Miller, these households represent 34.5% of U.S. households.
“Since the 2024 presidential election, the portion of Democrat-affiliated households who qualify as 'trade-off consumers' has grown from 34.2% to 37.8% today,” Miller said. “We expect these households will be motivated to vote and turn out in higher numbers.”
Miller said that the share of Republican-affiliated households meeting that definition declined from 35% to 31.7%.
Meanwhile, Pew's October polling found that 63% of registered voters supporting Democratic House candidates described themselves as extremely motivated to vote, compared with 46% of Republican candidate supporters.
Together, these findings suggest that financial pressures and differences in voter motivation could influence turnout, which matters for the final vote totals in congressional races.
Drive Voters Toward Democrats
Beyond motivating voters to participate, persistent inflation could affect which party they support.
Winegarden argues that financial dissatisfaction creates an electoral opening for Democrats.
“Due in part to rising inflation, real wages have not been increasing over the past two years, which is providing significant tailwinds to the Democrats who (based on prediction models) are now projected to take control of Congress,” he said.
September's inflation report could reinforce existing dissatisfaction and contribute to voting decisions that work against Republicans, who currently control Congress.
“History shows that when a majority of families believe that their personal economy is bad, the incumbent party pays the price,” Winegarden said.
The Bottom Line
Whether September's inflation report ultimately changes election outcomes will depend partly on how voters evaluate the candidates asking for their support.
Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, said the latest inflation figures increase pressure on candidates to address affordability.
“September’s acceleration reinforces the concern that relief isn’t coming quickly enough,” Palomarez said. “That puts pressure on candidates to explain what they will actually do to make life more affordable … Voters seek more than just a plan they can understand, but also results they can hold someone accountable for.”
Editor’s note on political coverage: MoneyLion is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories.
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
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